Concept, Determinants of consumption and its impact on other variables
Consumption is
the value of goods and services bought by people. Individual buying acts are
aggregated over time and space.
Consumption is
normally the largest GDP component. Many persons judge the economic performance of their
country mainly in terms of consumption level and dynamics.
Composition of
Consumptions
First,
consumption may be divided according to the durability of the purchased
objects. In this vein, a broad classification separates durable goods (as cars
and television sets) from non-durable goods (as food) and from services (as
restaurant expenditure). These three categories often show different paths of
growth.
Second,
consumption is divided according to the needs it satisfies. A commonly used
classification identifies ten chapters of expenditure:
1. Food
2. Clothing and
foot wear
3. Housing
4. Heating and
energy
5. Health
6. Transport
7. House
furniture and appliances
8. Communication
9. Culture and
schooling
10.
Entertainment
People in
different position in respect to income have systematically different
structures of consumption. The rich spend more for each chapter in absolute
terms, but they spend a lower percentage in income for food and other basic needs.
The percentage values of an aggregation over all the households in a country
can thus be used for judging income distribution and the development level of
the society.
The rich have
both higher levels of consumption and savings. In differentiated product
markets, the rich can usually buy better goods than the poor. This happens also
because they tend to use different decision making rules. In other words,
consumption depends on social groups and their behaviours, as well as their
proneness to advertising.
Third, for
exactness’ sake, one should distinguish “consumption” as use of goods and
services from “consumption expenditure” as buying acts. For durable goods this
difference may be relevant, since they are sued for long time periods.
Fourth, only
newly produced goods enter into the definition of consumption, whereas the
purchase of, say, an old house is not considered consumption, since it was
already counted in the GDP of the year in which it was built.
Determinants of
Consumption
Current income
is the most relevant determinant of consumption. Income comes from labour
(employment and wages), capital (e.g. profits leading to dividends, rents,
etc.), remittances from abroad.
Cumulated
savings in the past can be squeezed in case of necessity and give rise to a
jump in consumption, similarly with what happens with wealth increase, due for
instance to stock exchange boom or house prices boom.
Expectations on
future income, especially if concerning short-term credible events, may also
play an important role.
At household
level, there are many possible rules set to control monthly, weekly or even
daily consumption expenditure. They relate not only to income but also to the
following factors among others:
1. General
lifestyles, in particular attitudes toward savings or consumption as “values”
in itself;
2. A standard level
of consumption the family tries to maintain over time;
3. Decisions regarding
active saving strategies, like an investment scheme for pension aims;
3. The relative
success of past investment in shares or other financial instruments; in fact, a
stock-exchange boom is likely to promote an euphoria tide with growing
consumption;
5. Opportunities
of consumer credit, depending in turn by interest rates and marketing
strategies by banks and special consumer credit institutions;
6. Past
decisions on durables. For instance, a family having bought a car will reduce
expenditure on public transport in favour e.g. of fuel;
7. Status
symbols diffusion – “social musts”;
8. New
employment perspectives, also as far as the corresponding investments in human
and physical capital are concerned;
9. Innovative
sale proposals in terms of both new products and new services, effectively
advertised;
10. Temporary
money (cash) excess.
According to age
of the decision-maker, individual and household consumption varies, both in
values and composition. Thus, aggregate consumption may be influenced by demographic
factors, such as an older and older population, even though one should not rely
too much on these relationships since demographic variables are extremely slow
in changes, whereas consumptions clearly reacts to economic climate.
Other things
equal, a higher price level (inflation) reduces the real current income, thus
real consumption.
Impact on other
variables
A GDP component as it is,
consumption as an immediate impact on it. An increase of consumption raises GDP by the same amount,
other things equal. Moreover, since current income (GDP ) is an important
determinant of consumption, the increase of income will be followed by a
further rise in consumption: a positive feedback loop has been triggered
between consumption and income.
An autonomous
increase of consumption, if at the same level of income, would reduce savings,
but the positive loop just described (known as the “Keynesian multiplier”) will
imply an increase of income level with a positive impact on future savings.
If directed to
goods and services produced abroad, an increase of consumption will immediately
push up imports, while a similar indirect effect will result from consuming
domestic products requiring foreign raw materials, energy, semi-manufactured
goods.
Since usually
the States separately tax consumption (say with a VAT tax), an increase of
consumption will also boost this type of State revenue, as well as import
duties revenue in the case of imported goods. The growth mechanism of
consumption-income will also provide State revenue through income taxes.
To the extent
firms decide to invest forecasting future demand and comparing it with present
production capacity, an increase of consumption may induce new investment. In
particular:
1. Soaring
consumption raises the production capacity utilization, with positive effects
on profits;
2. It improves
expectations on future demand;
3. It improves
the financial conditions for funding investment both through profits and loans.
If exports are a
second-best solution for domestic firm, an increase of domestic consumption
might decrease export, since at the same level of production firms would prefer
to sell inside the country. To verify this by yourself, try and play “You are
an exporter”.
An increased
demand may also induce firms to increase prices, the more so when they operate
at full production capacity or they operate on monopolized markets. Thus
increased price level and accelerated inflation can be an effect of booming
consumption.
Long-term trends
In Western
countries, consumption has always grown in the last 50 years, except in few
deep recessions. Its growth is smoother than investment’s rise or net exports’
growth. In particular, services have always systematically grown at a fairly
steady pace, non-durables have often mirrored the business cycle and durables
have often over-shot the fluctuations in GDP .
Business cycle
behaviour
As the main
component of GDP , it is pro-cyclical almost by definition: any large all in
consumption would reduce GDP . Consumption has a smoother dynamics than GDP . During a recovery,
it sustains and stabilises the trend. Durable goods are particularly cyclical
and they may peak shortly before GDP .
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